| Date | Total Posts | Avg Sentiment | Positive % | Neutral % | Negative % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2021 | 10 | 0.274 | 9.9% | 90.1% | 0.0% |
| 15/08/2021 | 10 | 0.242 | 13.6% | 80.8% | 5.6% |
| 14/08/2021 | 10 | -0.092 | 2.2% | 83.5% | 14.3% |
| 13/08/2021 | 10 | 0.125 | 9.0% | 84.1% | 6.9% |
| 12/08/2021 | 10 | 0.195 | 11.8% | 82.6% | 5.6% |
| 11/08/2021 | 10 | 0.169 | 5.5% | 92.9% | 1.7% |
| 10/08/2021 | 10 | 0.192 | 11.3% | 84.0% | 4.7% |
| 09/08/2021 | 10 | 0.153 | 7.8% | 92.2% | 0.0% |
| 08/08/2021 | 10 | 0.135 | 4.7% | 89.3% | 6.1% |
| 07/08/2021 | 10 | -0.058 | 1.5% | 89.7% | 8.8% |
| Date | Total Tweets | Avg Sentiment | Positive % | Neutral % | Negative % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2021 | 1 | 0.625 | 57.7% | 42.3% | 0.0% |
| 15/08/2021 | 6 | 0.303 | 15.4% | 83.9% | 0.7% |
| 14/08/2021 | 18 | 0.099 | 12.2% | 83.2% | 4.6% |
| 13/08/2021 | 22 | 0.082 | 10.9% | 83.6% | 5.5% |
| 12/08/2021 | 9 | 0.041 | 10.9% | 84.0% | 5.1% |
| 11/08/2021 | 5 | 0.192 | 13.0% | 84.9% | 2.1% |
| 10/08/2021 | 4 | 0.215 | 21.0% | 79.0% | 0.0% |
| 09/08/2021 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 07/08/2021 | 2 | 0.300 | 10.3% | 89.7% | 0.0% |
| 06/08/2021 | 22 | 0.101 | 14.1% | 83.3% | 2.6% |
Daily distribution of positive, neutral, and negative sentiment components from r/wallstreetbets.
Daily distribution of positive, neutral, and negative sentiment components from Musk's tweets.
Insights:
Late Jan to Early March 2021:
→ There's a high percentage of negative sentiment, and Tesla’s stock price declines during this time.
→ Suggests bearish sentiment aligned with price drop.
Mid-March to Mid-May 2021:
→ Sentiment remains mixed, with neutral dominating, and the stock stabilizes.
→ Possibly a cooling-off period on Reddit after initial hype.
June–August 2021:
→ Positive sentiment increases slightly, while negative sentiment persists but declines somewhat.
→ Tesla’s price recovers and trends upward mildly.
→ A potential positive lagging effect or reduced bearish pressure.
Analysis of days with the most extreme sentiment values in r/wallstreetbets.
Analysis of days with the most extreme sentiment values in Musk's Tweets.
Insights:
Positive Sentiment (right side of the graph)
→ Tends to be followed by positive or neutral next-day price moves
→ A few cases show >3% gains after high sentiment days
→ But not all high-sentiment days lead to price increases — some even lead to negative returns.
Negative Sentiment (left side)
→ Often followed by sharp next-day drops (up to -5% or -6%)
→ More consistent correlation here: very negative days often precede losses
Relationship between the strength of sentiment and the volatility of Tesla’s stock price.
Relationship between the strength of sentiment and the volatility of Tesla’s stock price.
Insights: Little to no correlation
| Date | Post Count | Avg Sentiment | Price | Volume | Daily Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2021 | 10 | 0.274 | $228.72 | 23103303 | $11.04 |
| 15/08/2021 | 10 | 0.242 | $0.00 | 0 | $0.00 |
| 14/08/2021 | 10 | -0.092 | $0.00 | 0 | $0.00 |
| 13/08/2021 | 10 | 0.125 | $239.05 | 16731467 | $5.19 |
| 12/08/2021 | 10 | 0.195 | $240.75 | 17681686 | $7.80 |
| 11/08/2021 | 10 | 0.169 | $235.94 | 9800558 | $3.66 |
| 10/08/2021 | 10 | 0.192 | $236.66 | 13432305 | $4.90 |
| 09/08/2021 | 10 | 0.153 | $237.92 | 14715349 | $4.63 |
| 08/08/2021 | 10 | 0.135 | $0.00 | 0 | $0.00 |
| 07/08/2021 | 10 | -0.058 | $0.00 | 0 | $0.00 |
| Date | Tweet Count | Avg Sentiment | Price | Volume | Daily Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2021 | 1 | 0.625 | $228.72 | 23103303 | $11.04 |
| 15/08/2021 | 6 | 0.303 | $0.00 | 0 | $0.00 |
| 14/08/2021 | 18 | 0.099 | $0.00 | 0 | $0.00 |
| 13/08/2021 | 22 | 0.082 | $239.05 | 16731467 | $5.19 |
| 12/08/2021 | 9 | 0.041 | $240.75 | 17681686 | $7.80 |
| 11/08/2021 | 5 | 0.192 | $235.94 | 9800558 | $3.66 |
| 10/08/2021 | 4 | 0.215 | $236.66 | 13432305 | $4.90 |
| 09/08/2021 | 2 | 0.000 | $237.92 | 14715349 | $4.63 |
| 07/08/2021 | 2 | 0.300 | $0.00 | 0 | $0.00 |
| 06/08/2021 | 22 | 0.101 | $233.03 | 15623049 | $6.23 |
Correlation between sentiment and price movements from r/wallstreetbets.
Correlation between sentiment and price movements from Musk's tweets.
Insights:
1. No Consistent Lead-Lag Relationship
→ Sometimes sentiment increases before a price rise (e.g., late May), suggesting possible predictive power.
→ But in many other cases, price and sentiment diverge, or sentiment is reactive.
2. High Volatility in Sentiment
→ Sentiment spikes up and down frequently, even when price is flat. Reddit sentiment especially shows noisy behavior.
3. General Trend Decoupling
→ From April to August, sentiment remains high while price moves sideways — showing sentiment doesn’t always track price.
Analysis of sentiment momentum and its impact on price (Reddit).
Analysis of sentiment momentum and its impact on price (Musk).
Insights:
Positive Correlation Trend (Weak but Present):
→ More green dots appear at higher sentiment levels, especially in Reddit data.
→ Red dots (losses) cluster around neutral or negative sentiment.
Momentum Is Not Always Predictive:
→ Many losses still occur when sentiment is slightly positive.
→ Suggests sentiment alone might not provide strong directional signals.
Outliers:
→ Some extreme positive returns tied to major events or spikes in sentiment, particularly from Musk tweets.
Analysis of delayed price reactions to sentiment changes from Reddit.
Analysis of delayed price reactions to sentiment changes from Musk.
Insights:
Volatility in Sentiment
→ Sentiment changes rapidly day to day; Musk tweets in particular show abrupt shifts.
Local Correlation Windows:
→ In certain weeks, a sentiment drop precedes a price dip (e.g., early March).
→ Requires deeper lag correlation analysis to validate any consistent lag effect.
| Date | Total Comments | Post Count | Trading Volume | Price Volatility | Avg Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2021 | 300 | 10 | 23103303 | $11.04 | 0.274 |
| 15/08/2021 | 12626 | 10 | 0 | $0.00 | 0.242 |
| 14/08/2021 | 4069 | 10 | 0 | $0.00 | -0.092 |
| 13/08/2021 | 39724 | 10 | 16731467 | $5.19 | 0.125 |
| 12/08/2021 | 32144 | 10 | 17681686 | $7.80 | 0.195 |
| 11/08/2021 | 28550 | 10 | 9800558 | $3.66 | 0.169 |
| 10/08/2021 | 30965 | 10 | 13432305 | $4.90 | 0.192 |
| 09/08/2021 | 26518 | 10 | 14715349 | $4.63 | 0.153 |
| 08/08/2021 | 12182 | 10 | 0 | $0.00 | 0.135 |
| 07/08/2021 | 3874 | 10 | 0 | $0.00 | -0.058 |
| Date | Tweet Count | Trading Volume | Price Volatility | Avg Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2021 | 1 | 23103303 | $11.04 | 0.625 |
| 15/08/2021 | 6 | 0 | $0.00 | 0.303 |
| 14/08/2021 | 18 | 0 | $0.00 | 0.099 |
| 13/08/2021 | 22 | 16731467 | $5.19 | 0.082 |
| 12/08/2021 | 9 | 17681686 | $7.80 | 0.041 |
| 11/08/2021 | 5 | 9800558 | $3.66 | 0.192 |
| 10/08/2021 | 4 | 13432305 | $4.90 | 0.215 |
| 09/08/2021 | 2 | 14715349 | $4.63 | 0.000 |
| 07/08/2021 | 2 | 0 | $0.00 | 0.300 |
| 06/08/2021 | 22 | 15623049 | $6.23 | 0.101 |
Relationship between trading volume and Reddit comment activity.
Relationship between trading volume and Musk Twitter activity.
(The Musk chart displays trading volume and Musk tweet activity only for the 40 days with the most extreme average sentiment (20 highest and 20 lowest). The x-axis does not represent a continuous timeline, but rather highlights days with unusually high or low sentiment in Musk's tweets.)
Insights:
Spike Alignment
→ Reddit comment spikes often coincide with trading volume surges (e.g., late Jan, early March).
→ Musk tweet bursts also sometimes precede or align with volume changes, though less consistently.
Asymmetry in Influence
→ Not all volume spikes follow social activity. But major Reddit spikes almost always come with volume.
No Obvious Lag
→ Social and market activity tend to peak at the same time.
Analysis of trading volume in relation to extreme daily sentiment in Reddit sentiment.
Analysis of trading volume in relation to extreme daily sentiment in Musk’s tweets.
Insights:
Co-Movement of Peaks
→ Sentiment spikes (especially positive ones) often align with volume increases.
Divergence in Late Timeline
→ In summer months, sentiment remains volatile but volume fades — more visible in Reddit data.
Emotion Doesn’t Always Equal Action
→ Especially for Musk tweets, high emotional content doesn't always move volume.
Analysis of price volatility in relation to sentiment changes in r/wallstreetbets.
Analysis of price volatility in relation to sentiment changes in Musk’s tweets.
Insights: No strong correlation detected between sentiment strength and volatility for either Reddit or Musk data.
Let’s see which stocks are being talked about the most
It seems like Tesla, .... and ... are being talked about. We will choose Tesla
Did the trading activity of Tesla increase with an increase of comments? It seems yes!
Looking at the sentiment of these comments, % is positive % is negative and % is neutral. See how Tesla’s stock fluctuates with sentiment.
Let’s take a closer look at the impact positive sentiments make on Tesla’s prices. We see at this point both the sentiment and price is high. What happened at this point? Looking at the comments...
As a result, the volatility of the market increased. Our conclusion is that media indeed has an influence on short term volatility of stock markets.